Mariners Update, End of May

Ok, I have to be honest.  I really wanted to do a weekly blog on the Mariners' season, but I think that was over-ambitious.  I just had to comment on a few things, in light of the 21-8 thrashing the M's dropped on the Texas Rangers today.  This, following yesterday's 10-3 drubbing of the same Rangers.  You know, the ones that were in the World Series last year?   The same Rangers who were one out away from glory and blew it in game 6 to an over-matched, over-achieving Cardinals team?  Oh, and the over-matched, over-achieving Giants the year before? 

What has become clear over the past two months of Mariners' baseball is that this team is very streaky.  Win four, lose six.  Win five, lose seven.  For most of the season, the offense has veered between a joke and a disaster, with manager Eric Wedge treating the roster like his personal fantasy team.  He tinkers with a different lineup every night, regularly sitting hot players in favor of guys hitting below .200.    The only consistent thing about the Mariners has been their inconsistency.  Hopefully, this 31 Run, 32 hit barrage over the past two games sparks some life into the otherwise anemic offense.  Then again, they may play as bad as they did against the Angels, racking up strikeouts and losing close games because they can't hit with runners in scoring position. 

Here are a few things that need to happen sooner, rather than later. 

1. Chris Chambliss, the Mariners "hitting" coach, needs to be replaced.  A guy off the street couldn't do much worse, but I'd suggest getting Edgar Martinez to fill the void--or yawning chasm--at this point.
2. The Mariners piled up 21 runs on 22 hits tonight WITHOUT Ichiro in the lineup.  I said they should have traded him last year.  He's hitting .271, isn't going to hit .300 again, isn't going to come close to 200 hits again, and has no plate discipline.  Trade him now!
3. Designate Chone Figgins for assignment.  Eat the remainder of his contract.  A desperate team might pick him up on waivers and offer a pair of used game socks and a couple of dollars.  Take the deal!
4. John Jaso should be the starting catcher against RHP, and Montero against LHP.  Miguel Olivo should be next on the waiver wire after Figgins.  Every time I say to get rid of him, he manages to get a couple of hits.  Big deal.  He's still hitting well below .200!
5. Use the roster space freed up by getting rid of these three to bring Casper Wells back, bring up Carlos Peguero (currently hitting .385 with 10 HR at AAA) and SS Nick Franklin.  
6. As a matter of fact, get rid of Franklin Gutierrez as well.  The guy is a Gold-Glove CF when he's healthy, but he hasn't been healthy since 2009.  Michael Saunders and/or Wells can continue to play CF, or bring up Trayvon Robinson if Saunders tanks.
7. Just as a classy move, claim Jamie Moyer off waivers from the Colorado Rockies, and let him retire as a Mariner.  Hell, he's probably capable of pitching a few more games out of the bullpen, too!

Well, that's about it.  The M's record stands at 23-30, but could be much better if the offense becomes more consistent, and the bullpen stops blowing leads.

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NBA Playoff Round 1 predictions

Philadelphia vs Chicago

Most would think this is your standard 1 vs 8 seed match-up. However the Bulls are an intriguing team, they’ve played well with and without Derrick Rose all season. I can’t remember a team winning the #1 seed after having their star player out for so long.

Now none of that changes things and the Bulls should make quick work of the 76ers.

Bulls in 5.

New York vs Miami

Players might have changed but a New York/Miami playoff series still draws me in. Talk about star power you have 3 of the top 10 players in the league and 5 of the top 30. This is what you expect to see in the playoffs, just not normally in round 1.

The Knicks can pull out some games in the series but they’ll have to get great shooting performances from J.R. Smith and Steve Novak. Melo will do his thing but Amar’e needs to step it up and put on a consistent show each and every game. Even then it’s tough to envision the Knicks winning a series against the Heat.

Heat in 6.

Orlando vs Indiana

Hmm well, I don’t think there’s much to say here. The Pacers are the strange team that you don’t think can win in the playoffs since their best player is Danny Granger, but they got themselves the best possible match-up.

The Magic are a deep shooting team based off Dwight Howard’s play, of course Howard isn’t playing so…not sure what they're going to do.

Pacers in 5.

Boston vs Atlanta

Do the old/experienced, depending on your preference, Celtics continue their late season surge and move past the first round? Or do the surprisingly consistent Hawks, even without Harford, beat the vets?

I can see this going either way, but I think Pierce, Allen and Mr. tough guy want to show everyone that they’re not done yet.

Celtics in 6.

Dallas vs Oklahoma City

A rematch of last years Western Conference Finals in team name only. The Thunder all seem to be there assuming Harden’s brain isn’t broken. The Mavs on the other hand are year older not as good defensive team and not as good at knocking down threes. But then again they seem to know what their doing in the playoffs. But, yes there’s a lot of buts, can you rely on Vince Carter? No you can’t.

Thunder in 6.

Utah vs San Antonio

Ooooo, this could be a good one. The Spurs surprised everyone, not that anyone should’ve been surprised, with taking the 1 seed. They had the 1 seed last year but lost to the front line heavy Grizz. The Jazz well…have a great front line too. I like the Jazz, they have 4 real front line players, that’s 4 more than some teams.

The Spurs on the other hand, aren’t dumb and don’t tend to make the same mistakes more than once. I think they’ll learn from last year and won’t want to lose in the first round as a 1 seed two years in a row.

Spurs in 7.

Denver vs Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are too old and they complain too much and they have a crappy coach and have an impact player out for the next six games. Denver is young and plucky and can score and can defend. Sounds like a miss match to me. Buuuuuuuutttt then again this are the Lakers with a huge front line and one of the most clutch players in history who despite playing what seems like 48 mins a game everyday for the last 10 years is playing like he found the fountain of youth.

Lakers in 6.

Los Angeles Clippers vs Memphis

What? The Clippers in the playoffs? Oh yeah sorry that was my thought process the last 30 years of my life. Sure they went out and got Chris Paul and it paid off. They made the playoffs, too bad their going to get clobbered in the first round.

Memphis surprised a lot of people last year in the playoffs, but they were built for a slowdown playoff series. The difference between now and then, they added Rudy Gay back into the mix, giving them flexibility to play big or small or fast or slow.

Oh yeah, who’s Blake Griffin going to guard and not foul out?

Grizzles in 5.

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2012 Seattle Mariners, Week 3

I'm a bit late writing this week's blog on the S.S. Mariner, probably because I had to figure out how to not include several profanities.  Actually, the whole Mariners week was a profanity.  So...good, bad, ugly?

The Good:  Nothing.  Alright, they did manage to not blow one game during the 1-5 week...by a hair...against Cleveland.  Felix was light's out for 8 innings of one-run ball with 12 K's and got a no-decision  (League lost in the 9th).  I suppose it is good that it is over.

The Bad:  Everyone not named Hernandez, Beavan, Seager, Montero or Ichiro.

The Ugly:  See The Bad.  Millwood:  13 ER in two starts.  Noesi:  1-1/3 innings of batting practice against the White Sox giving up 6 ER.  No one can hit with runners in scoring position.  Olivo and Figgins just plain can't hit, and Ryan isn't doing much better.  The Mariners had leads in most of these games, except for the game Saturday when Humber of the White Sox (a pitcher I had never heard of) threw a perfect game against them.  The bullpen blew at least three games, including spoiling King Felix's gem.  The good news is, it is still early and the M's stand at 7-10.  Eventually, Wedge will pull his head out and start Jaso against RHP, designate Figgins and Olivo for assignment, play Kawasaki against RHP instead of Ryan and bring up Carlos Peguero and another infielder.  The Mariners start a 10 game road trip in Detroit on Tuesday.  Let's hope for some better pitching and *some* offense.

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Brandon Roy One Year Ago

It seems strange to be talking about game 4 of a playoff series right now, but the NBA lockout has caused the 2012 regular season to bleed into what would normally be the middle of round 1. But that doesn't matter, what matters is today April 23, 2012 is the one year anniversary of the last great Trail Blazer moment and what would turn out to be the last great performance of one of Portland's all time greats.

After a January knee surgery, Brandon Roy was regulated to minimal minuets and a bench role. The one time savior of the franchise was held scoreless in a game two defeat and was not shy about expressing his displeasure over his role. While game three showed us SOME vintage Roy the forth quarter of game four showed us what we all missed.

Thanks to Pinwheel Empire for the video.



I listened to excerpts of Brian Wheelers call today and couldn't help but get chills. This happens sometimes to sports fans, whether it's a timely Kirk Gibson homerun or a Miracle on Ice. After that euphoric feeling I thought "Wait, that was only a year ago?" That seemed strange to me. Think about what has happened since then. Roy only played in two more games for the Blazers then retired another proposed pillar of the franchise, Greg Oden, had his umpteenth knee surgery and was cut from the team to find room for trade-away castoffs. And the Nate McMillan was fire mid season.

Not only has the team changed dramatically in one year more upheaval is on the way. It may be a long time before Blazer fans have something like Brandon Roy and and his fourth quarter again. Thanks Brandon.

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2012 Mariners, week 2

The second week of the Mariners 2012 season is complete, and some things are clearing up while others aren't so clear.  I think I'll stick with the good, bad and ugly theme I started last week.  Overall, the M's stand at 6-5 on the year, dropping 3 of 4 in Texas and winning 2 of 3 against Oakland at home.

THE GOOD:  Starting pitching has been as good as advertised, if you throw out Hector Noesi's disastrous first start against Texas.  They've been keeping the team in the game and pitching consistently into the 6th or 7th inning.  That's all you can ask from a starting staff.  Speaking of Noesi, he followed that awful game in Texas with a gem against Oakland at home, pitching 7 innings in a 4-0 shutout.  Blake Beavan followed up his hard-luck 1-0 loss in Texas with another outstanding effort on Sunday in the Mariners 5-3 win.  The offense continues to be sparked by Kyle Seager, newcomer Jesus Montero and Ichiro.  Chone Figgins' fast start seems to have cooled off, but he's still getting on base and playing well in the outfield.  In other good news, Mike Carp is off the DL, and will be back in the lineup soon.  That means Casper Wells is likely to be sent down to Tacoma, as Alex Liddi is more versatile and is actually hitting.  Despite losing three of four to Texas, the Mariners kept battling in every game and did not roll over.  This should send a message to the Rangers and Angels that they are going to have to earn every win against them this year.  With a consistent offense, we would have had at least a split in that series.  In the bullpen, Rule-5 pickup Luetge and Brandon League have both been outstanding so far.

THE BAD:  The offense was inconsistent at best last week.  They jumped out to a 5-2 lead against Yu Darvish and the Rangers after two innings, but were unable to put anything else on the board in an 11-5 thumping.  They were also shut down by the A's Bartolo Colon for the second time in three tries against him this season.  Mariners bats were quiet all week for the most part.  Justin Smoak may lead the team with 2 HR's at this point, but he's being overly aggressive and not taking pitches when it matters.  In the game against the Rangers' Derek Holland, he had runners on with 2 out and a 2-0 count.  Holland threw a great Change-up on the black at 86 mph.  A professional hitter should know to take that pitch, tip his cap and look for a fastball to drive on 2-1.  Smoak took a wild hack and hit a weak tapper back to the mound.  Casper Wells has been ineffective in limited AB's and needs to be sent down for some consistent playing time to work on timing and his confidence, in my opinion.  Another issue is the number of times the guys are striking out looking, especially on fastballs on the inner-half.  Those should be mistakes to turn on.  You can't be up there guessing.  See it and hit it!

THE UGLY:  Steve Delabar.  Three HR's in 3 appearances.  George Sherrill is on the 15-day DL with elbow problems.  Franklin Gutierrez is still weeks away from returning from his pectoral injury.  The ugliest thing?  Miguel Olivo's batting average.  This guy barely hit over .200 last year, but was kept for his "defense."  This season, he's struggling to keep that BA over .100.  You can't have that in the middle of the lineup from an almost everyday player.  Let Montero catch on the days they are facing a lefty and let's see what the left-handed hitting Jaso can do against righties.  He can't do any worse!  Are you listening, Mr. Wedge, oh-he-of-the-ever-changing lineups?  Could any part of the offensive inconsistency *possibly* be because the batting order and lineup changes on a daily basis?  Yes some tinkering is necessary, but this went on all of last season and has continued this season.

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Mariners News-Week 1 In Review

Hi baseball fans!  It was a good week for the Mariners, taking 3 out of 4 from the A's in both Tokyo and Oakland.  We've hopefully seen a preview of the season to come, so I will breakdown some things that were good, bad and ugly from the action so far.

THE GOOD:  The offense was stellar, especially in Oakland.   Both teams struggled in the Tokyo series but there were moments, such as Ackley's clutch HR in the 11th inning of the opener.  In the two games in Oakland, the Mariners piled up 15 runs on 26 hits.  Every Seattle starter had at least one hit in Saturday's game.  Chone Figgins seems at home in the leadoff role, with back-to-back three hit games.  If he continues to produce like that, it will make the past two seasons worth of awful play a distant memory.  Dustin Ackley, Saunders and Seager continue to look good at the plate and Ichiro is looking like Ichiro again!  From a pitching standpoint, Vargas was incredible in both starts.  I hope he can sustain that after the All-Star Break, because he seemed to run out of gas late last season.

THE BAD:  In the first two games in Tokyo, the Mariners were awful with runners in scoring position, and it seemed like a reprise of last season.  Bartolo Colon limited them to three hits in the 4-1 loss in game two of the series.  The bullpen has been disappointing so far, with only League seeming solid at this point.  Felix Hernandez pitched very well in the opener in Japan, but lost focus after the 4th Inning on Saturday, nearly blowing a 7-0 lead.  Without the Saunders HR in the top of the 7th, this is one that could have gotten away.  Hernandez was charged with 6 earned runs in 6-1/3 innings, but two of those six scored on the Cespedes 3-run HR off of Delabar in relief.

THE UGLY:  The Mariners gave up three HR's to Cuban rookie sensation Orlando Cespedes that went over 1300 combined feet.  Jason Vargas was lit up twice (one a 462-foot moon shot) while Steve Delabar served up the other.  Felix Hernandez currently owns a 1-0 record but an ERA of 8.63.

DEBUT TIME:  Rookie LHP Lucas Leutge (pronounced LOOT-gee) made his debut Saturday, striking out the only batter he faced.  Japanese rookie Munenori Kawasaki also made his ML debut on Saturday, going 1-4 with an RBI single and scored a run in the M's 6-run 4th inning.  Rookie RHP Hector Noesi makes his Mariners debut in Texas tonight, hoping to spoil the Major League debut of Japanese league star Hu Darvish.

NOTE:  I will likely post a weekly review on Mondays during the season.  I would welcome any feedback on my posts or what you would like to hear concerning the Seattle Mariners.

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How About Those Mariners?

     Barry here, and the new M's season has gotten underway, in case you missed it.  This season will answer a lot of questions for the Mariners, and I believe there will be surprises in store!  Cactus League play has wrapped up, with the M's at 14-9-1.  They've played very well during the spring.  The Mariners have set their final 25-Man roster.  A few surprises there, already.  Rule 5 draft pick Lucas Luetge and rookie LHP Erasmo Ramirez have made the team as lefties out of the pen.  Charlie Furbush, a starter late last year, was sent down despite posting an 0.87 ERA over 11 2/3 spring innings.  The starting rotation is headed by Felix Hernandez, followed by Jason Vargas, Hector Noesi, Kevin Millwood and Blake Beavan.  They opened the season in Tokyo last week, and did not play particularly well, dropping both exhibition games to the Hansin Tigers and Yomiuri Giants before the opening split with the A's.  Hernandez took a no decision in the Mariners 3-1 Extra Inning victory over the A's in the opener, with Vargas pitching very well (also a no-decision) in the 4-1 loss the next day, with the bullpen serving three HR's in the late innings to break a 1-0 Mariners lead. 
     On the offensive side of the ball, the injury bug has bitten the M's early once again.  Mike Carp (LF/DH) and Franklin Gutierrez (CF) both open the season on the 15-day DL.  In case you haven't heard, Ichiro has been moved to the #3 spot in the order; a move that I'd been calling for for the past four seasons.    The lineup will be as follows, to start the season:  Figgins (LF), Ackley (2B), Ichiro (RF), Smoak (1B), Montero (DH/C), Olivo (C), Seager (3B), Saunders (CF), Ryan (SS).  As usual, manager Eric Wedge will be using a lot of different lineups and bench players.  Casper Wells will see a lot of playing time in the OF and newcomer Munenori Kawasaki will fill in at SS and 2B.  Also making the team is Alex Liddi, who will see time at 3B, 1B and DH.  Joining Olivo behind the plate are off-season acquisition Jon Jaso and the aforementioned Montero.  Once Carp and Gutierrez return from the DL, I think the lineup gets a whole lot better.  One of the other big questions is how long Wedge sticks with Chone Figgins, who has been a bitter disappointment since coming over from the Angels.  He's back in his familiar spot in the leadoff role, but will that be enough to spark him at the plate?
     The Mariners season will live or die with the offense.  If they can average over 4 runs per game, they have a shot to challenge even the mighty Rangers and Angels.  With the addition of Jesus Montero in the middle of the order, and the re-vamped lineup, this is a group than can do some damage.  If they struggle again to hit with runners in scoring position, it will be another 90 loss season.

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NFL Super Bowl picks

It's Super Bowl time. Well it our last pick of the season. Who do you think is gonna win?

New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Derek - New England. I've gone back and forth with this pick. I had the G-Men out fo the gate but the more I thought about it and the more I looked at things I've decided to flip. I feel I'm undervaluing a 13-3 teams that's won 9 in a row. Some folks will look at their D and say they're no good. Sure they've give up points but a lot of those were in the 4th quarter of blowout wins. I just see Brady coming out there focused and ready to more the Pats down the field every drive. I see the final as 31-24.

Loren - NY Giants. One thing you can say for the Giants, they won't be intimidated. Eli has been there and lead his team victory before, and the Giants have had to beat tougher playoff competition this year than the Pats. It feels like the Giants are peaking at the right time while the Pats still have questions. You know what they say, defense wins championships. I don't always buy into that, but I think it will hold true this time. Giants win 30-24.

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NFL Playoff week 3 picks

Three games left in this NFL season. Kinda makes me sad.

Baltimore at New England
Derek - New England. I know the Raven D will slow the Pats down a bit but it won't be enough. The Ravens D will HAVE to have big plays from Flacco and can't solely rely on Rice. I don't see it happening enough to make a difference.
Loren - Baltimore. The Ravens should be able to put pressure on Brady and that's the recipe for beating the Pats. Averaging out the defense and offense of the two teams, Baltimore comes out ahead with their ability to run. Defense has been winning in the playoffs, I expect that trend to continue.

New York Giants at San Francisco
Derek - San Francisco. The Giants look like one heck of a team and obviously know what they're doing in the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised if they won, but the 49ers have things clicking right now and don't think the Giants are going to score like the Saints did last week. Again we're talking about a team traveling across country here, we'll see what kind of effect that has.
Loren - San Francisco. I can definitely see this game going either way, and a defensive grinder or an offensive explosion is equally possible. Playing at home gives the 49ers the edge, and the Giants luck is going to run out.

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NFL Playoff week 2 picks

Well after a 3-1 week from me last week I locked up this years NFL 6-pack pick Championship between Loren and I. I'm up 10 with 7 games left. On to the picks.

New Orleans at San Francisco
Derek – San Francisco. I keeping going back and forth on this pick. Brees is obviously playing at the top of his game, but the 49ers have a good D. For me it comes back to the home field advantage not just the field conditions but the west coast travel for the Saints, least we forget last years game with Seattle. Also don't underestimate how good a QB can be if his line gives him time and he's passing against one on one coverage. I think Smith will be able to play mistake free.
Loren – New Orleans. Okay, so the picks don’t really matter anymore. I’m back to picking who I really think will win the games (note the exception below). This boils down to the Saint’s O being better than the 49er’s D. The Saints will be able to score and the Niners won’t be able to keep pace. San Francisco might make it interesting, but they just won’t be able to hang in there with Drew Brees all game.

Denver at New England
Derek – New England. Repeat of the last game between these two. The Broncos can't hang with the Pats on the offensive side of the ball. You can't guard both TEs and Welker.
Loren – Denver. Do I think the Broncos have a legitimate shot against New England? No. Did I think they had a legitimate shot against Pittsburgh? No. Maybe, just maybe, the Broncos D will be good enough to knock New England slightly off pace. Maybe the Broncos won’t kill themselves with turnovers like they did in their last game against the Pats. And maybe the same strategy (lure the defensive backs and linebackers up with run packages and send receivers out in unorthodox patterns) that was successful against Pittsburgh will work against a much leakier defense. Logic doesn’t much matter when your team is fighting for the right to play in the AFC championship game. Hooray for homerism!

Houston at Baltimore
Derek – Baltimore. The Texans have done a great job juggling the season with all the injuries. But they're going to walking to a hailstorm.
Loren – Baltimore. This could get ugly. I actually fear for TJ Yates’ life right now. Seriously, Baltimore is going to send so many blind side blitzes against this kid that the Texans may have to keep blocking TEs and FBs in at all times. Unless Foster goes all superman and gets miraculous blocking up front from the Texans’ O-line, Yates is going to have to pass his team back into the game. He may break the record for most consecutive one-step drops in a row by a QB.

NY Giants at Green Bay
Derek – Green Bay. I wouldn't be surprised if the G-Men pull the upset here, just something about them this year. But I'm not going to pick against Rodgers with Gennings back in the lineup.
Loren – Green Bay. I’m not betting against that offense. I’m not betting against Rogers. Would you?

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NFL Playoff week 1 picks

Well Loren and I did not post our picks last week but I took 4 out of the 5 we choose. increasing my lead to 8 games with 11 to play.

Pittsburgh @ Denver
Derek - Pittsburgh. It's not as bleak as Loren makes it sound but he is right in that, Denver's success is part that the opponents are unprepared. I don't the the Steelers will be, I'd be surprised if Denver scores more than 10.
Loren - Denver. If I'm going to go out, might as well go out by picking my team. Sure, there's not a single logical reason to take Denver, but much of Denver's season has been illogical. I don't believe for an instant that Elway encouraged Fox to put Tebow in because he could win. The Broncos were destined for lottery greatness, but something strange happened along the way. It probably boils down to teams being unprepared for the style of offense the Broncos ran, but the result is a home playoff game. I wouldn't be a true homer unless I took by boyhood team in a situation seemingly against all odds. Go Broncos.

Atlanta @ NY Giants
Derek - NY Giants. I think Eli has played too well in clutch situations not to give him a home playoff game win.
Loren - Atlanta. If I have to take another road team, might as well be a team featuring Michael Turner facing the last ranked rush defense. Does Atlanta have the tools and skill players to take out the Giants? Yes. Is Matt Ryan a head case in the playoffs? Sunday's game will tell.

Cincinnati @ Houston
Derek - Houston. The Texans have issues with injuries but it'd be nice to see them win their first playoff game and it is a home game so...
Loren - Cincinnati. Being 8 down, I don't really have much choice here. I don't really think the Bengals will win this game, but they have a puncher's chance. Right? *sigh*

Detroit @ New Orleans
Derek - New Orleans. I can't wait to see a 50-45 game in the playoffs. I'm taking the Saints here, they've been on a roll, have the home field and have playoff experience. Detroit has Megatron, which is still pretty good.
Loren - Detroit. Well, at least this wouldn't be considered a huge upset. Detroit is completely capable of matching New Orleans point for point. Unfortunately for me, they'll have to do better than match. Hey, even if I lose this match up, it should be an incredibly entertaining game.

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Crazy Blazer bets

With the dawn of the regular season upon us it's time for our yearly Crazy Blazer bets. As a recap we make predictions related to the Blazers that are so far fetched that if anyone of them were to accutally happen you'd be willing to pay $5 to the person who made that bet. As always please feel free to add your predictions to the bottom, of course you're not eligible for the cash.

Derek - Raymond Felton will average 12 assists a game, lead the leauge in assists and have 3 or more games of 20+ assists.

Loren - LaMarcus Aldridge averages 30+ points a game, 12+ rebounds, 4+ assists and 2+ blocks a game and is named MVP.

Philipp - Oden will play an entire playoff sereis average a double double in the playoffs and the Blazers will advance past the first round.

Ryan - Patty Mills, Joel Pryzbilla and Jeff Pendergraph will all play this season for the Blazers.

Cliff - A Blazer will be voted into the starting line-up for the All Star Game.

Carlos - A Blazer will be named First Team All NBA this year.

Mike - Luke Babbitt scores 30+ points in an NBA game this year.

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NFL week 16 picks

Well here we are week 16 only two weeks to go for the regular season that almost never was, ok we all knew that it'd be played. Loren and I split our different picks last week going 4-2. I'm sitting with a record of 59-31 while Loren has a stellar 57-33 record.

Oakland @ Kansas City
Derek - Oakland. Tough one. I"m going against the Chiefs. I'm thinking let down game, but you gotta like what you saw out of Orton though. I think Oakland can run behind Bush long enough to old out for a FG victory.
Loren - Kansas City. The loser here is out of the race for the AFC West, while the winner may get a chance to take the division with a win in week 17. I'm going with KC at home. Oakland is still missing a lot of pieces to injury and KC is building momentum with that huge win against Green Bay. With the win, KC sets up a game at Denver in the final week with Kyle Orton getting a chance to beat the team that let him go and get the Chiefs, most pundits cellar pick, into the playoffs as a division champ.

Denver @ Buffalo
Derek - Denver. Buffalo is on a 452 game loosing streak and Jesus won't let the Broncos lose more than 1 in a row. The bills gave pup 200 yards to Reggie Bush on the ground how do you think they'll do against the Broncos rushing attack.
Loren - Denver. Just like New England, the Bills have a porous defense that could make Tebow look good (assuming he doesn't turn the ball over and gets a little more help from his line). Unlike New England, the Bills no longer have the kind of offense that can make up for their porous D. Denver wins and depending on the outcome of the Giants/Jets game, keep the inside track on a playoff berth.

NY Giants @ NY Jets
Derek - New York Giants. Hmm not sure which players have to travel more for this one. The Jets just don't look good, while the Giants flux between good and bad. Seems like I have a 50% chance if I go with Eli and friends.
Loren - NY Jets. Since the Giants can't run the ball, they'll have to continue to rely on Eli. Unfortunately, Manningham is out again and the Jets secondary can lock down receivers on both sides of the field. I just don't see the Giants being able to move the ball and stay mistake free.

San Diego @ Detroit
Derek - Detroit. San Diego drilled the Ravens last week but that was a bad game by the ravens good D by the Chargers and the benefit of playing an east coast team at home. The tables are turned for this game and I expect Stafford to go to Megatron early and often.
Loren - San Diego. The Chargers finally figured out how to win. Better late than never? Probably not for their fans. Detroit has needed luck to pick up wins against Minnesota and Oakland the last couple of weeks, while San Diego has three throttling wins including Baltimore.

San Francisco @ Seattle
Derek - San Francisco. Classic Unstoppable Force meeting the immovable object. Lynch has scored a TD in his last 7 games, the 49ers have not allowed a rushing TD this year. Think about that for a second. No team has done that in a 16 game season. I think the 49ers D will be enough to stop Lynch and I'll take Alex Smith versus Tavaris Jackson.
Loren - San Francisco. I took Pittsburgh last week thinking the Niners had slowed down a bit, and it cost me a chance to tie Derek. I'm not making that mistake again. The Seahawks have played well lately and have been a lot of fun to watch, but their playoff chances are officially over after a loss to the Niners this week.

Atlanta @ New Orleans
Derek - New Orleans. Should be a high octane offensive game but I can see the Falcons scoring in the 30's and losing by double digits. Can't stop Brees right now and he only needs a partly 305 passing yards to break Marino's record for most passing yards in the regular season.
Loren - New Orleans. The Falcons have exactly one win against a team with a record above .500 and they already lost to New Orleans once this year. Drew Brees is the kind of QB who, when given a second shot at a team, figures out their weaknesses and exploits them. Tough loss for Atlanta but they'll still be playoff bound.

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NFL Week 15 picks

Wait does that say week 15? Wow that went by fast. Loren picked up a game on me last week so I'm up 2 with a 55-29 record while Loren sits at 49-31.

Detroit at Oakland

Derek – Detroit. Palmer isn't what the Raiders thought he was, or at least they're not getting out of him what they think they should have. We'll see if time turns it around and they are hosting the a team traveling a great distance, but I think the Lions will do enough on D to win this one.

Loren - Detroit. Getting Suh back will help Detroit. Not having McFadden on the field yet again is going to hurt Oakland. The Raiders once looked like a lock to win the division, they may not be able to stay out of the cellar if they can't pick up another victory.

Miami at Buffalo

Derek – Miami. Buffalo has struggled lately while Miami has turned a bit of a corner. I don't like picked the fins in a cold weather game but the way they are running it and playing D recently makes me think they are a cold weather team.

Loren - Miami. Even though they got beat up by Philly, I think the Dolphins D is enough against an increasingly ineffective Buffalo offense. Probably a low scoring and relatively close game. The weather is supposed to be cold but clear. If that changes, so could the outcome of the game.

Seattle at Chicago

Derek – Chicago. Ehh tough choice. If this was in Seattle I'd be picking the Seahawks, but I can't seem them winning twice on long trips this year. They have Lynch but the Bears still have their D. It'll be close.

Loren - Seattle. Too many players out for the Bears when they are already feeling depleted and down. They're going to have to throw the kitchen sink at Marshawn Lynch, who is definitely finding a rhythm with the Seattle offense, and even that may not be enough. The loss to Denver may have been the final straw for Chicago's playoff chances. They are looking at a long uphill climb to make it and I don't think they have the talent or the heart to make it happen.

New England at Denver

Derek – New England. I think the Broncos will put up some points but I think Brady is the guy to figure out Denver's D. We'll see if the Broncos can tackle a TE, most teams that play against the Pats can't.

Loren – New England. This was a much more difficult decision than I had anticipated. The Patriots just don't play well in Denver, Brady doesn't play well against the Broncos, and the Pats defense is so porous they could actually make Tebow look like a gifted passer. The deciding factor, though, is that the Broncos secondary is dealing with injuries and Brady knows how exploit patchwork secondaries. Of course, I wouldn't be sad to see Von Miller harass Brady all day and help the Broncos stifle the Pats.

Baltimore at San Diego

Derek – Baltimore. Again I'm picking a visiting team. Boy I'm not sure how I'm going to do this week. The Ravens are the better team and they should be stop what the Chargers throw at them. Flacco makes two TD passes and Rice scores on the ground 21 should be enough.

Loren - Baltimore. Behind Green Bay, this is the team no one wants to play right now. At least with the Pats or New Orleans, you think you have a chance to score some points. The Ravens play physical on both sides of the ball and they're getting Ray Lewis back this week. Bodes very poorly for San Diego who have lost to every quality opponent they've played this year.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco

Derek – San Francisco. I think Big Ben might have some issues moving and he needs to move to be effective, oh yeah they'll be playing the 49ers D who can get after you too. Don't forget the cross country flight. Everything points to a San Fran win.

Loren - Pittsburgh. Everyone is making such a big deal out of Roethlisberger's injury. They're not talking as much about Gore being injured and slowing down as the season progresses, or that Alex Smith has had one decent start in his last 5 games. The Steelers are physical enough to control this game and they just know how to win when it counts. San Francisco is still learning how to do that.

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NFL week 14 picks

Loren and I only picked one game different last week and I took that one with Miami's 34-14 destruction of Oakland. I'm ow up 3 with a 51-27 to 48-30 record.

Atlanta at Carolina

Derek – Atlanta. Carolina showed up last week but I think the Falcons are just about to the point I thought they'd be during the beginning of the season. Turner is going to run and Ryan is going to hit White all day. They'll outscore the panthers with ease.

Loren - Atlanta. As much as Atlanta has been struggling recently, they should still have enough in the tank to take care of Carolina. I think Atlanta buckles down, gets the ball in the hands of Turner more, and grinds their way to the playoffs.

Philadelphia at Miami

Derek – Miami. One team moving up and one team sinking down. At this point a road game for the Eagles might be a blessing. They've looked bad, but Vick's back and that has to count for something. But won't be enough to be the Fins, who've played like a playoff team the last few weeks.

Loren - Miami. You just can't feel comfortable taking Philly against just about anyone right now. They haven't demonstrated the ability to use their talent effectively and beat the bad teams they're supposed to beat. I'll take team with the hot hand and the momentum, especially when they're the home team.

New Orleans at Tennessee

Derek – New Orleans. The Saints are rolling, and some, Byron Saints fan, says this might be a trap game. I say no and Coloston will have a huge game. At least I hope so, I'm playing Loren for the last Fantasy Football playoff spot.

Loren – New Orleans. Titans have looked much better recently and I wouldn't be surprised to see them make the playoffs, but a win this week is far-fetched. The Saints are on a roll and will win a game that should be closer than most people think.

Buffalo at San Diego

Derek – San Diego. Too far to travel for a slip sliding Bills team. Rivers had a great game last week and will most likely continue.

Loren – San Diego. A match up of two teams with busted hopes. Injuries in Buffalo have taken a toll, as has the thin receiving corp. San Diego can't stop anyone on the ground and defenses are sitting back on Philip Rivers because the Chargers are ineffective running the ball. If the Chargers pull out a win at home, they'll still have an outside shot at the playoffs if the Broncos or a wild card team fade.

NY Giants at Dallas

Derek – Dallas. Home team just a bit more consistent than the G Men. It could be a toss up but I think Romo has the better/healthier weapons.

Loren – NY Giants. I've learned never to trust the Cowboys this late in the season. Remember, this is the team that lost to Arizona last week, beat Miami by one point, and needed overtime and luck to beat Washington the week before. Sure, the Giants have been struggling, too. However, they've only had one bad loss in the last four, and played SF, Philly, and Green Bay close. The Giants know that a win against Dallas vaults them into first in the division and gives them the mental edge in the final week of the season, a rematch with Dallas.

St. Louis at Seattle

Derek – Seattle. Seattle's played well lately and at home they have a distinct advantage. Should be an easy one as long as they don't shoot themselves in the foot.

Loren - Seattle. Just a little regional love for Seattle since they hadn't been featured here for a couple of weeks. Here's the crazy thing: with Detroit fading and facing a tough schedule, and the futures of the Giants and Bears uncertain, the Seahawks have a dark horse shot at a wild card spot. Three of their last four are winnable, which could leave them at 8-8. That might be enough to slip in ahead of the Bears, particularly if they can beat them next week.

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NFL week 13 picks

For the first time all year I had the lead and then extended it. I'm up 2 games on Loren now with a 46-26 record compared to his 44-28.

Carolina at Tampa Bay
Loren - Tampa Bay. Freeman will probably be back for the Bucs, and playing at home should be the extra edge Tampa Bay needs to their losing streak. Wait, I think I said something similar last week, too. Crap...
Derek - Tampa Bay. Blount will be able to run the ball and control the game for the Bucs, Newton to Smith won't succeed and that'll be enough.

Oakland at Miami
Loren - Oakland. True, Miami has played better recently, and we may not see McFadden for this game, and the Raiders are traveling across country...damn it I can't believe I talked myself into this one. Well, I'll take Palmer and Bush over Matt Moore and ???.
Derek - Miami. I went back and forth but what got me was the cross country travel for Oakland and that Miami had extra rest since playing on Thanksgiving.

Denver at Minnesota
Loren - Denver. With AP out of this game, the vicious Broncos D can spend all day knocking Ponder around. This will probably be the closest to a winning blowout the Broncos get all year.
Derek - Denver. As the fake Kyle Orton said "I didn't realize that to be a good QB all you have to do is hand the ball off." That's all Tebow needs to do in this one.

Tennessee at Buffalo
Loren - Tennessee. Sad to say it, but the Bills won't be able to pull out of their nosedive this week. The Titans smell blood now that Houston is starting someone we've never heard of. They just need to take care of business and watch Houston slowly crumble. The Bills could have been helped in this game by a dose of nasty Buffalo weather, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.
Derek - Tennessee. The Bills are looking like the team we thought they'd be. Stevie Johnson was fined but will play but won't be enough for the suddenly healthy CJ.

Green Bay at NY Giants
Loren - Green Bay. Why start losing now?
Derek - Green Bay. I won't be surprised if NY wins this one they are so up and down, but have a history of knocking off undefeated teams Denver in 98 and New England in the Super Bowl a few years ago, but I'm riding Rodgers all the way.

Detroit at New Orleans
Loren - New Orleans. Losing Suh is a big blow to Detroit's defense, but they have a lot of depth. More concerning is Matt Stafford's TD/INT ratio of 7/9 over the last three games. If they're to have any shot, he's got to clean up those mistakes. Unfortunately for Detroit, even a perfect game might not be enough to beat the Saints.
Derek - New Orleans. The Saints roll points on the board in any big national game, guess when this game is? Sunday night. Win by double digits.

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NFL Week 12 Picks

The CHAMP IS HERE! THE CHAMP IS HERE! Hey have beating Loren 3-1 last week I've regained the lead. I've got 41-25 record and Loren has a 40-26 mark. On to the picks!

Green Bay at Detroit
Derek – Green Bay. The Lions are a good team, not a great team they can score and when they get to the QB they can hurt him on D, but the Pack are on another level. Detroit could score 35 and lose by double digits early.
Loren – Green Bay. This is likely to be the most entertaining game of the weekend. Seriously, a Super Tecmo Bowl score is definitely possible. Green Bay just has more weapons and Detroit doesn’t have Aaron Rogers.

Tampa Bay at Tennessee
Derek – Tennessee. The Bucs are not looking good lately and I think the Titans D will handle Blount. And it looks like CJ is working his way in to form.
Loren – Tampa Bay. Going out on a limb here, but I like what Blount brings to the Tampa Bay offense. They hung in with Green Bay last week and I just don’t see them dropping 5 in a row. Tennessee still can’t get their ground game going and now there are worries about Hasselbeck. Tampa Bay surprises Tennessee.

San Francisco at Baltimore
Derek – Baltimore. If you read this blog you know my thoughts on teams playing across country. Couple that with the fact that the 49ers are going to have to rely on Alex Smith to move the ball this could go sideways in a hurry.
Loren – Baltimore. I really, really wanted to take San Francisco but there are three factors that weigh in favor of Baltimore. The 49ers’ passing D is pretty awful, so even though they might shut down Ray Rice, Flacco will have plenty of room to throw. Second, Baltimore’s D is so strong that San Francisco will struggle to move the ball at all. If they get down and have to rely on Alex Smith to throw them back into the game, it could get ugly. Finally, San Francisco is crossing three time zones. That’s going to sap their energy.

Chicago at Oakland
Derek – Oakland. If I'm the Oakland D I put 11 guys in the box. I'm not confident the Hottub Hanie can hit an open receiver. The Raiders D is to good for the Bears in this situation. Just make sure they don't kick to Harris.
Loren – Chicago. I like the groove Chicago has found, and they are quietly 7-3 and have won 5 in a row including an avenging, and convincing, victory against Detroit. Yes, Cutler is out, but that might actually work in favor of the Bears in the short term. Hanie will throw more passes in the flat, hopefully getting the ball into Forte’s hands and letting him use his speed and power.

Buffalo at NY Jets
Derek – NY Jets. The Bills look like the complete opposite from they way they started the season. They can throw at all and I think that's going to hurt Fred Jackson's ability to run.
Loren – NY Jets. The battle of two teams circling the drain. Really, whoever loses here is out of the playoff race. I have no confidence in either team, and hope that Buffalo wins, but I think the Jets’ D and playing at home carry the day.

Denver at San Diego
Derek – San Diego. Below Loren makes some good points. I'm going to go with odds. Sure Tebow is 4-1 this year as a starter. But that would make the odds of him losing that much better, frankly he's due.
Loren – Denver. I have to go with the statistics, and Tebow is 4-1 as a starter. I’m not picking against the guy with an 80% winning rate. That would be like picking against the Packers or the Pats! Okay, seriously though, San Diego is in shambles with open arguing on the sideline and questions already surfacing about a lost season. All the pressure is on San Diego to turn the tide against a Denver team playing with nothing to lose and a whole lot of heart.

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NFL Week 11 Picks

Loren and I split last week so I still stand 1 behind. Our records now total Loren with 37-23 and I have 36-24.

NY Jets @ Denver
Loren – Denver. Derek and I are both making homer picks this week and, frankly, he probably has the better chance for a victory. The Broncos have found a way to confuse teams and play into Tebow’s strength, but it’s only a matter of time before defensive coordinators figure out the scheme. This week, I like the Broncos playing at home at high altitude, the Jets coming off a stinging loss, and Denver’s renewed hard-hitting defense.
Derek – NY Jets. You can't argue with success and since I can't argue I won't say anything about Tebow. But I can talk about the Jets, they are becoming a desperate team and we'll see how they react with their backs against a wall, they should have enough speed to contain the Broncos rushing attack.

Jacksonville @ Cleveland
Loren – Jacksonville. This is a hard game to pick, but it comes down to MJD. Cleveland has given up whole countries worth of ground to opposing running backs, 140 YPG and 4.4 YPC. This defense is beaten down and the Jags aren’t about to deviate from the formula for victory against this team.
Derek – Cleveland. This game should be a low scoring game and while the Browns have had injuries they should be solid now with the players they have already getting PT. It's a home game and they should win by a FG.

Buffalo @ Miami
Loren – Buffalo. Buffalo’s D isn’t going to give up the same kind of yards and points to Miami as they did to Dallas and the Jets. Miami also isn’t the kind of team I would bank on having a 3 game win streak. Their two previous wins are against KC and Washington. Buffalo, KC, Washington...one of these things is not like the other. Buffalo gets back on track this week with a convincing win.
Derek – Miami. Was that Bills hot start and aberration? Did the Bills give a large chunk of change to a QB with limited success, do the Dolphins know how to stop the run and how to use Reggie Bush? The answer to all that is yes.

Seattle @ St Louis
Loren – St Louis. With Bradford finally behind center, more holes will open up for Steven Jackson. In turn, Brandon Lloyd should also have more room to operate. Additionally, I just don’t trust the Seahawks to play as mistake free as they need to on the road.
Derek – Seattle. The last time the Seahawks won in St. Louis they walked away with a 7-9 record and a division title. Pete knows how to get players to play just right and if you saw how they rushed against the Ravens last week they shouldn't have a problem against the Rams.

Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Loren – NY Giants. What must it be like in the heads of the Eagles’ players right now? They can’t be certain, week to week, which team will show up, Jekyll or Hyde. Their worst loss of the season came against the Giants in week three, so that has to be weighing on them, too. If you can’t take care of business against Arizona, I’m certainly not picking you on the road against a team that already trounced you.
Derek – NY Giants. The demise of the Eagles continues, this has to be the biggest disappointment of the year besides the Colts. Vick might not play and probably shouldn't. I'm not taking Vince Young to be the Giants at home.

San Diego @ Chicago
Loren – Chicago. Congratulations, Philip Rivers, you just made the list of players I will never fantasy draft in the first five rounds. You join the ranks of Reggie Bush, Knowshon Moreno, Jay Cutler, and Joe Flacco. Now, please throw more tantrums and make faces letting everyone know that your teams has let you down, even though this may be the most talented offense you’ve ever played with. You suck.
Derek – Chicago. Besides Rivers would anyone else draft any of the above players in the first 5 rounds? Didn't think so. Anyway I think the Bears are one of the hotter teams in the league right now and don't be surprised if they make some noise come playoff time.

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NFL week 10 picks

Can you believe it's already week 10 of the NFL season? Last week I took one game from Loren so I'm only down one now. Loren sits at a 33-21 record and I'm right there with a 32-22 record.

Tennessee at Carolina

Loren – Carolina. Just don't like this match-up on the road while Tennessee has failed to get their running game going. Cam might have a big day through the air and on the ground, if Williams or Stewart don't beat him to it.
Derek – Carolina. This game could go either way. But I'm gong to lean towards the home team. You'd think that CJ would get it going at some point but until I see it I can't put too much faith in him.

Houston at Tampa Bay

Loren – Houston. Too many weapons against a defense the plays well in their scheme but isn't nearly as fearsome as it once was. The big wild card here is Blount. If the Bucs can get a good game from him and win time of possession, they may pull out a squeaker.

Derek - Houston. Another game that looks close but won't be by the end. Freeman has disappointed with turnovers this year compared to last year and while the Texans don't have Johnson they have Foster and you can't give him extra opportunities.

Denver at Kansas City

Loren – Denver. Halfway through last week's game against the Raiders, as the moronic Oakland fans, being the ever so creative types they are, were chanting Tebow Sucks, I realized it was time to root not just for the Broncos, but for Tebow as well. Yeah, he may not be the QB of the future, and asking your QB to run the option in the NFL is a gimmick, but if it's your best chance to win games now, so what? It's entertaining, and we beat the snot out of the Raiders. I can't ask for much more. Maybe they'll keep it rolling in KC as the Chief's defense tries to figure out a game plan.
Derek – Kansas City. KC has to be the most up and down team of the season so far. They started 0-3 then won 4 straight only to lose last week to the win-less Dolphins hurting their Andrew Luck chances. Not only losing but getting smashed 31-3. What team will show up? I'm thinking one that can stop the run.

New Orleans at Atlanta

Loren – Atlanta. I'm justifiably terrified of the Saints O in this match-up. However, they won't be able to put up 62 against the Falcons' D, and they are missing a number of key players on their own D. They are going to have huge match-up problems in their secondary with inexperienced backs covering big WRs in Julio Jones and Roddy White, guys who know how to use their size. The Falcons are going to throw a lot, get up early, and let their running attack bleed the clock.

Derek – New Orleans. This may be the one game I WANT to see this week. I'm hoping for a huge shootout and I thin the Saints are the team that can out shoot the Falcons. X factor here is Sproles, did that guy find the perfect system for his talents or what?

NY Giants at San Francisco

Loren – San Francisco. The Giants are quietly (if a NY team can ever do anything quietly) playing better than a lot of people expected, and now look like the favorites to take the NFC East. Unfortunately for them, they have no chance to run on SF. The 49ers know this and will alternately drop extra men into coverage or blitz the hell out of Eli. The Giants will have to be extra lucky to take this one on the road.

Derek – San Francisco. The Giants are playing well enough to beat any team. But when traveling across the country teams have huge issues, and they are playing one of the better teams in the league, I have a bad feeling about Manning this week and I think I see some INT's in his future.

New England at NY Jets

Loren – New England. Plain and simple, I don't think the Pats drop three in a row. They are too talented and coached too well. They know the importance of taking this game and, with it, almost all hope the Jets have of a division title. The Pat's running game is weak at best, but if anyone can pass against the Jets, it's Tom Brady.

Derek – New England. Three game losing streak for the Pats? Don't think so. Big rivalry game and the Pats own the Jets in the regular season.

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Top 5 Timbers moments from 2011

Our Timbers guru Bruce returned to provide his top 5 Timbers moments of 2011.

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